A multi-cell experimental design to recover policy relevant treatment effects, with an application to online advertising

Experiments are an important tool to measure the impacts of interventions. However, in experimental settings with one-sided noncompliance, extant empirical approaches may not produce the estimands a decision-maker needs to solve their problem. For example, these experimental designs are common in digital advertising settings, but typical methods do not yield effects that inform the intensive margin -- how much should be spent or how many consumers should be reached with a campaign. We propose a solution that combines a novel multi-cell experimental design with modern estimation techniques that enables decision-makers to recover enough information to solve problems with an intensive margin. Our design is straightforward to implement. Using data from advertising experiments at Facebook, we demonstrate our approach outperforms standard techniques in recovering treatment effect parameters. Through a simple advertising reach decision problem, we show that our approach generates better decisions relative to standard techniques

Inefficiencies in Digital Advertising Markets

Digital advertising markets are growing and attracting increased scrutiny. This article explores four market inefficiencies that remain poorly understood: ad effect measurement, frictions between and within advertising channel members, ad blocking, and ad fraud. Although these topics are not unique to digital advertising, each manifests in unique ways in markets for digital ads. The authors identify relevant findings in the academic literature, recent developments in practice, and promising topics for future research

Automated Foosball Table

This project is the second iteration of an automated foosball table for Yaskawa America as a trade show display. The table is meant to provide an interactive experience which highlights the speed and precision of the Yaskawa hardware. The first iteration of the project was mainly focused on creating the physical hardware for the system and to begin the basic programming for the system. This phase of the project was focused on finalizing the physical hardware of the system, implementing the vision system and to continue the basic programing of the system AI. A third team will be assigned to bring the project to completion by fully implementing the AI system and making any required changes to the physical hardware which are required. The automated Foosball system is comprised of two major system elements. The first element is the motor cabinet, which houses the PLC, motors and amplifiers used to actuate the system. It also acts as a display case for the motors system. The other major element is the foosball table itself, which is comprised of several subsystem components. The foosball table system contains a vision arch which houses the vision system, a playfield cover which prevents users from injury, and a roof which blocks direct lighting on the table. Several hardware components were created or modified during this phase of the project. The roof structure was designed and built complete this quarter, as were brackets which connected the motor cabinet and foosball table. A gap cover was also designed and built to cover an exposed portion of the motor cabinet. While not fully completed, the hardware used in the safety system has been begun and should be completed by the future team. The scoring system for the table was also approached during this phase of the project, and it was concluded that the current scoreboard should be redesigned. The original vision system started by the first team was found to be insufficient to meet the requirements of the foosball system. To simplify the process of creating the vision system, a Cognex Insight 7400 camera system was donate d to the project by Cognex. This camera system was found to be sufficient to meet the minimum requirements of the project with relatively little work. Future teams should focus on improving the frame rate of the vision system. The AI program developed during this phase is working and playable, though it is relatively crude. Future iterations of the AI program should use sequential function charts to organize the program and predictive play should be implemented. More sophisticated play strategies can also be implemented to improve the playability of the system

Stability of corn (\u3ci\u3eZea mays\u3c/i\u3e)- foxtail (\u3ci\u3eSetaria\u3c/i\u3e spp.) interference relationships

Variation in interference relationships have been shown for a number of crop-weed associations and may have an important effect on the implementation of decision support systems for weed management. Multiyear field experiments were conducted at eight locations to determine the stability of corn-foxtail interference relationships across years and locations. Two coefficients (I and A) of a rectangular hyperbola equation were estimated for each data set using nonlinear regression procedures. The I and A coefficients represent percent corn yield loss as foxtail density approaches zero and maximum percent corn yield loss, respectively. The coefficient I was stable across years at two locations and varied across years at four locations. Maximum yield loss (A) varied between years at one location. Both coefficients varied among locations. Although 3 to 4 foxtail plants m-1 row was a conservative estimate of the single-year economic threshold (Te) of foxtail density, variation in I and A resulted in a large variation in Te. Therefore, the utility of using common coefficient estimates to predict future crop yield loss from foxtail interference between years or among locations within a region is limited

Effect of early vasopressin vs norepinephrine on kidney failure in patients with septic shock. The VANISH Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Norepinephrine is currently recommended as the first-line vasopressor in septic shock; however, early vasopressin use has been proposed as an alternative. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of early vasopressin vs norepinephrine on kidney failure in patients with septic shock. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A factorial (2×2), double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted in 18 general adult intensive care units in the United Kingdom between February 2013 and May 2015, enrolling adult patients who had septic shock requiring vasopressors despite fluid resuscitation within a maximum of 6 hours after the onset of shock. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly allocated to vasopressin (titrated up to 0.06 U/min) and hydrocortisone (n = 101), vasopressin and placebo (n = 104), norepinephrine and hydrocortisone (n = 101), or norepinephrine and placebo (n = 103). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was kidney failure-free days during the 28-day period after randomization, measured as (1) the proportion of patients who never developed kidney failure and (2) median number of days alive and free of kidney failure for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both. Rates of renal replacement therapy, mortality, and serious adverse events were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 409 patients (median age, 66 years; men, 58.2%) were included in the study, with a median time to study drug administration of 3.5 hours after diagnosis of shock. The number of survivors who never developed kidney failure was 94 of 165 patients (57.0%) in the vasopressin group and 93 of 157 patients (59.2%) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -2.3% [95% CI, -13.0% to 8.5%]). The median number of kidney failure-free days for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both was 9 days (interquartile range [IQR], 1 to -24) in the vasopressin group and 13 days (IQR, 1 to -25) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -4 days [95% CI, -11 to 5]). There was less use of renal replacement therapy in the vasopressin group than in the norepinephrine group (25.4% for vasopressin vs 35.3% for norepinephrine; difference, -9.9% [95% CI, -19.3% to -0.6%]). There was no significant difference in mortality rates between groups. In total, 22 of 205 patients (10.7%) had a serious adverse event in the vasopressin group vs 17 of 204 patients (8.3%) in the norepinephrine group (difference, 2.5% [95% CI, -3.3% to 8.2%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among adults with septic shock, the early use of vasopressin compared with norepinephrine did not improve the number of kidney failure-free days. Although these findings do not support the use of vasopressin to replace norepinephrine as initial treatment in this situation, the confidence interval included a potential clinically important benefit for vasopressin, and larger trials may be warranted to assess this further. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: ISRCTN 20769191

Stability of corn (\u3ci\u3eZea mays\u3c/i\u3e)- foxtail (\u3ci\u3eSetaria\u3c/i\u3e spp.) interference relationships

Variation in interference relationships have been shown for a number of crop-weed associations and may have an important effect on the implementation of decision support systems for weed management. Multiyear field experiments were conducted at eight locations to determine the stability of corn-foxtail interference relationships across years and locations. Two coefficients (I and A) of a rectangular hyperbola equation were estimated for each data set using nonlinear regression procedures. The I and A coefficients represent percent corn yield loss as foxtail density approaches zero and maximum percent corn yield loss, respectively. The coefficient I was stable across years at two locations and varied across years at four locations. Maximum yield loss (A) varied between years at one location. Both coefficients varied among locations. Although 3 to 4 foxtail plants m-1 row was a conservative estimate of the single-year economic threshold (Te) of foxtail density, variation in I and A resulted in a large variation in Te. Therefore, the utility of using common coefficient estimates to predict future crop yield loss from foxtail interference between years or among locations within a region is limited

Developmental Expression and Glucocorticoid Control of the Leptin Receptor in Fetal Ovine Lung.

The effects of endogenous and synthetic glucocorticoids on fetal lung maturation are well-established, although the role of leptin in lung development before birth is unclear. This study examined mRNA and protein levels of the signalling long-form leptin receptor (Ob-Rb) in fetal ovine lungs towards term, and after experimental manipulation of glucocorticoid levels in utero by fetal cortisol infusion or maternal dexamethasone treatment. In fetal ovine lungs, Ob-Rb protein was localised to bronchiolar epithelium, bronchial cartilage, vascular endothelium, alveolar macrophages and type II pneumocytes. Pulmonary Ob-Rb mRNA abundance increased between 100 (0.69 fractional gestational age) and 144 days (0.99) of gestation, and by 2-4-fold in response to fetal cortisol infusion and maternal dexamethasone treatment. In contrast, pulmonary Ob-Rb protein levels decreased near term and were halved by glucocorticoid treatment, without any significant change in phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription-3 (pSTAT3) at Ser727, total STAT3 or the pulmonary pSTAT3:STAT3 ratio. Leptin mRNA was undetectable in fetal ovine lungs at the gestational ages studied. These findings demonstrate differential control of pulmonary Ob-Rb transcript abundance and protein translation, and/or post-translational processing, by glucocorticoids in utero. Localisation of Ob-Rb in the fetal ovine lungs, including alveolar type II pneumocytes, suggests a role for leptin signalling in the control of lung growth and maturation before birth.This work was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (grant numbers S18103 and BB/H01697X/1).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLoS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.013611